Thursday, December 29, 2011

My tech predictions for 2012
     This is the time of year when every tech blogger, podcaster, analyst, and pundit makes their predictions for the coming year. Well I have been involved in the technology industry for over two decades and I figure that it might be fun to see just how well I can do.
  1. 2012 will be the year of Amazon. Amazon will keep expanding their video streaming, their musc service, and hardware. We will see a 10" tablet and possibly an improved 7" Kindle Fire. What we will not see is an Amazon phone. I just do not see Amazon getting into the phone business.
  2. We will see an iPad 3. This is a no brainer as Apple pretty much comes out with a new iPad every year. This iPad will have a retina display, a quad core cpu, and an improved camera. It will also be a CDMA and GSM world device, and of course be thinner and lighter. It will also sell like hot cakes.
  3. Apple will produce a TV and a new TV box. The new Apple TV will offer apps as well as Netflix streaming and Hulu, 
  4. Apple will expand their video offerings.
  5. Sprint will try and buy TMobile. If they pull it off Sprint will start migrating to GSM and LTE and away from CDMA. Sprint will not want to run multiple networks any longer than is absolutely necessary. WiMax will fade fast and the LTE roll out will be sped up.
  6. AMDs Fusion APU line will become more popular as consumers and manufactures start to care more about graphics performance and less about raw cpu power.
  7. Automotive tech will explode. All cars will come with tech packages and will be a huge selling point.
  8. Google will start competing in the automotive tech sector.
  9. More people will cut the cord. Cable companies will see more and more people drop cable and go over the air and over the internet for their shows.
  10. We will see more patent lawsuits.
  11. We will see the first mainstream "TV" show produced and distributed only on the internet.
  12. Advertisers will finally embrace Internet podcasts and streaming shows as an alternative to traditional television.
  13. Voice recognition and natural language interfaces will become the hot new thing.
  14. RIM will keep losing customers and will do nothing to stop it.
  15. Windows Phone 7 will continue to fizzle and take Nokia with it.
  16. Low end digital cameras sales are going to plummet. Cell phone cameras will replace not just point and shoot cameras but low end digital video cameras as well.
  17. Even entry level digital SLRs' video will reach professional quality.
  18. Electric cars sales will remain at token levels.
  19. Windows 8 will not be a sales succes. PC users will see no need to upgrade from Windows 7. Arm based windows tablets will not sell well because of a lack fo applications. X86 based tablets will not sell well because of cost, battery life, and a lack of tablet centric applications. 
  20. Microsoft will get a new CEO.
  21. Android tablets will get better but Apple's supply chain will keep them from undercutting the iPad on price.
  22. iPhone 5. Finally LTE and an even faster GPU for mobile gaming.
  23. A new iPod touch using the A5 CPU will ship and become the mobile gaming device
  24. The Wii U will flop.
  25. Nintendo 3DS sales will plumet as gamers move to the iPod touch in even greater numbers. 
  26. We will find more Earth like planets but will not find any technologically advanced cultures.
  27. We will find more evidence for life on Mars.
  28. Space X will fly a manned mission.
     Well those are my predictions for the coming year in technology. As far as culture and politics, I have only one political prediction. This election is going to be ugly. I just hope that I am wrong on my political prediction.

Happy New Year

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

The Osama bin Laden photos?

It is just one of those days when I do not understand people This first post is completely atypical of what I intend to blog about, but you have to start somewhere. So how did this become my first blog post? People at my office were complaining about the President not releasing the pictures of Osama bin Laden. For the record, I am not a fan of President Obama, but I do not hate him either. With that being said, I think the President is making the correct choice in not showing pictures of Osama bin Laden with his head blown off. The simple reason is that I just don't think it will make the world a better place.

So why am I so disappointed? Simple I was having a discussion at work about this. Several people where demanding that they should show the pictures. The reason they say they want to see the pictures is that they want proof. After all seeing is believing right?

No it really isn't and hasn't for a very long time. I work at a software company and I am shocked by the idea that I am the only one that has ever heard of Photoshop. We discussed that photos could be faked, but that didn't seem to work. Then they said "well experts can tell the difference". Maybe but "experts" have been fooled in the past. As far as proof goes, all that proves is that the expert didn't think it was faked. So at this point, I thought that we could all agree that showing the picture is no more proof than the word of the President, the word of the Navy Seals that carried out the mission, the DNA test results, the crew of the carrier where they buried him at sea, and even various terrorist organizations? No. The final argument I got was "just because you say it is so doesn't make it so!". No it doesn't, but I am willing to stand by the statement that a picture on TV is not proof.

If it is not for proof, why would anybody want to see a man with his head blown off? I can only think of two reason.
1. They do not like being told that they shouldn't see this.
2. They want to satisfy their need for revenge by seeing Osama bin Laden's head blown off.

To the former group all I can say is I know how you feel. I hate being told that I don't need to know or see this. However, I simply ask you to consider this question: What will it help? Will seeing those pictures make the world a better place? I honestly do not think it will. If you really feel that it will, then we have an honest difference of opinon.

To the latter group, I suggest that you think about it. Is this even healthy for you? I have heard people say things like "Why not show them?" and "Why do we care? They don't care about inflaming us!" Or worse ,"If it was one of our guys they would be dragging him through the street and spitting on them!" That is all true, there are people that would do that. A lot of people that would in fact. You see them on TV and think they are disgusting.
I am no fan of President Obama but his actions here have increased my respect for him. Now it is time for the people of the US to do the right thing as well. Time for us to say that we actually trust the President when he says that we have taken out Osama bin Laden. It is also time for us to be proud of a our President for deciding to do the right thing and not show those pictures just to satisfy some critics.

My next post hopefully with have nothing more political in it than OS/X vs Windows or AMD vs Intel.