Thursday, December 29, 2011

My tech predictions for 2012
     This is the time of year when every tech blogger, podcaster, analyst, and pundit makes their predictions for the coming year. Well I have been involved in the technology industry for over two decades and I figure that it might be fun to see just how well I can do.
  1. 2012 will be the year of Amazon. Amazon will keep expanding their video streaming, their musc service, and hardware. We will see a 10" tablet and possibly an improved 7" Kindle Fire. What we will not see is an Amazon phone. I just do not see Amazon getting into the phone business.
  2. We will see an iPad 3. This is a no brainer as Apple pretty much comes out with a new iPad every year. This iPad will have a retina display, a quad core cpu, and an improved camera. It will also be a CDMA and GSM world device, and of course be thinner and lighter. It will also sell like hot cakes.
  3. Apple will produce a TV and a new TV box. The new Apple TV will offer apps as well as Netflix streaming and Hulu, 
  4. Apple will expand their video offerings.
  5. Sprint will try and buy TMobile. If they pull it off Sprint will start migrating to GSM and LTE and away from CDMA. Sprint will not want to run multiple networks any longer than is absolutely necessary. WiMax will fade fast and the LTE roll out will be sped up.
  6. AMDs Fusion APU line will become more popular as consumers and manufactures start to care more about graphics performance and less about raw cpu power.
  7. Automotive tech will explode. All cars will come with tech packages and will be a huge selling point.
  8. Google will start competing in the automotive tech sector.
  9. More people will cut the cord. Cable companies will see more and more people drop cable and go over the air and over the internet for their shows.
  10. We will see more patent lawsuits.
  11. We will see the first mainstream "TV" show produced and distributed only on the internet.
  12. Advertisers will finally embrace Internet podcasts and streaming shows as an alternative to traditional television.
  13. Voice recognition and natural language interfaces will become the hot new thing.
  14. RIM will keep losing customers and will do nothing to stop it.
  15. Windows Phone 7 will continue to fizzle and take Nokia with it.
  16. Low end digital cameras sales are going to plummet. Cell phone cameras will replace not just point and shoot cameras but low end digital video cameras as well.
  17. Even entry level digital SLRs' video will reach professional quality.
  18. Electric cars sales will remain at token levels.
  19. Windows 8 will not be a sales succes. PC users will see no need to upgrade from Windows 7. Arm based windows tablets will not sell well because of a lack fo applications. X86 based tablets will not sell well because of cost, battery life, and a lack of tablet centric applications. 
  20. Microsoft will get a new CEO.
  21. Android tablets will get better but Apple's supply chain will keep them from undercutting the iPad on price.
  22. iPhone 5. Finally LTE and an even faster GPU for mobile gaming.
  23. A new iPod touch using the A5 CPU will ship and become the mobile gaming device
  24. The Wii U will flop.
  25. Nintendo 3DS sales will plumet as gamers move to the iPod touch in even greater numbers. 
  26. We will find more Earth like planets but will not find any technologically advanced cultures.
  27. We will find more evidence for life on Mars.
  28. Space X will fly a manned mission.
     Well those are my predictions for the coming year in technology. As far as culture and politics, I have only one political prediction. This election is going to be ugly. I just hope that I am wrong on my political prediction.

Happy New Year

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